It can be a little reductive during the NBA playoffs to look at a box score after a game, see which team shot better from 3-point range and definitively state that’s why a certain team won the game.
And yet … it’s really hard to identify a better reason the Boston Celtics find themselves in an 0-1 hole to the New York Knicks in the second round. (Especially after the same Celtics went 4-0 against the Knicks in the regular season, with an average margin of victory of 16.3 points.)
That’s because Boston didn’t just have a bad shooting night in its 108-105 overtime loss to New York in Game 1. The Celtics had a historically bad shooting night, missing a playoff record 45 3s.
Do the Knicks deserve credit for their attentive and aggressive defense? Of course. They also deserve applause for their mental toughness to come back from a 20-point deficit in the second half, as well as for their impressive shot-making in a tight game.
But Boston certainly doesn’t need to panic after an off shooting night. If anything, the Celtics arguably should be encouraged that they lost by only three points despite shooting 15-of-60 from 3 and 35.1% from the field overall.
“Obviously, over the course of a game, you always can find five to 10 shots that you want to be better at, but I thought throughout the night for the most part we fought for good looks throughout the game,” Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla said.
He added: “To me, I look at the process and the shot quality. So our shot quality was high.”
The numbers back Mazzulla up.
According to NBA.com’s tracking data, a whopping 56 of the Celtics’ 60 3-point attempts Monday could be considered at the very least open, which means the closest defender was at least 4 feet away. Twenty-four of the 60 attempts were classified as wide open.
And on those 24 wide-open 3-point attempts in Game 1, Boston shot 29.2%, an anomaly not only for the Celtics, but for any team in the NBA.
In the regular season, the Celtics shot 40.7% on wide-open 3s, fifth best in the league. The worst 3-point shooting team in the regular season, the Orlando Magic, still connected on 35.1% of wide-open looks.
“It’s a lot of shots that we want certain guys taking, and it felt like we got some good looks,” Boston star forward Jayson Tatum said after Game 1. “Obviously, in hindsight, if we could go back, we probably would drive the ball a little bit more, because we missed a lot of shots tonight.
“But it’s a balance. Sometimes it’s a make-or-miss league, and then there’s some times where you know you can get a better shot.”
Tatum is right.
The Celtics could have eased up on some of the 3-point launching late in the game, but letting it fly from beyond the arc has been the biggest reason for Boston’s success this year and last, when it won an NBA championship with largely the same roster.
The Celtics had the second-best offensive efficiency during the regular season and did so while attempting a league-high 43.1 3s a night. Specifically against the Knicks in the regular season, Boston attempted 48.3 3s across four games, with a 130.2 offensive rating. (Over a full season, that would be by far the best offense in NBA history.)
“I don’t think you want to force them into 3s,” New York spark plug Josh Hart said Monday. “We don’t want them to shoot more 3s. They got great shooters, man. We just try to make it tough for them, make it physical. You never want a team like that to shoot more 3s.
“We were kind of trying to take away 3s, and they still got up 60.”
Simply put, the Celtics have a formula to beat New York. Challenge the Knicks’ lesser defenders (Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns) by calling them into pick and rolls and then leverage their shortcomings into open 3-pointers, either by stepping into space and firing or by creating good looks by driving and kicking.
Boston created the shots it wanted in Game 1. If the Celtics had even a poor shooting night as opposed to a record-breaking bad one, they’d lead the series 1-0.
Could New York win the series? The Knicks certainly have a chance, but it almost definitely won’t happen if Boston keeps shooting over 50 open 3s a night.
