Trump snubs traditional allies and marks Gulf power with his first major foreign trip

The changing trend also underscores an evolution in U.S. priorities, with the visit building on prior U.S.-Saudi engagements under both Trump and Biden. (Trump also made a brief visit to the Vatican last month for Pope Francis’ funeral, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But the stop was not a preplanned diplomatic trip with the groundwork and pageantry surrounding a state visit.)

During an Oval Office meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday, Trump told the room he would make two more stops on the trip, with visits to the neighboring United Arab Emirates and Qatar, nations involved in mediating conflicts he has sought to address.

Adding a layer of intrigue to the visit, Trump’s family’s business ties in the Gulf have drawn attention at home, as his namesake company signals that it is not going to withhold from foreign business. Last month, the Trump Organization struck a deal for a Trump-branded golf course to be built north of the Qatari capital by a Saudi Arabian firm.

Analysts noted the Gulf is now a swing region pivotal to global economic stability, connecting the U.S., China and Europe. Among other major events, it has hosted ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, with Saudi Arabia playing a mediating role since Russia’s invasion, including by facilitating talks.

“It’s a strategic linchpin,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, “which is a different and new way to think about it than Americans have thought about the Middle East, which is typically associated with endless wars and terrorism.”

And, he added, “there will be bling” — observing a lavish aesthetic alignment between the Gulf states and a president who this week remarked how the Oval Office had grown more beautiful with the addition of “great love and 24-karat gold.”

A White House official said about the trip that a “secure and stable Middle East means greater prosperity for our partner nations and the United States. President Trump will discuss investment and economic cooperation with these foreign leaders, among other topics.”

Still, the slight to Canada and Mexico, both cornerstones of North American trade and security, has not gone unnoticed.

“It does signal the fact that he does not believe in how critically important the North American relationship is,” said Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the U.S., while highlighting both countries’ role in addressing economic competition with China. “You can’t press control-alt-delete, and erase Canada or Mexico from your northern or southern border.”

Canada and Mexico, having lived through Trump’s first-term playbook and the opening of his second, may not be openly stung: “They probably expected this,” noted Tizoc Chavez, a historian of American presidential diplomacy and a visiting assistant professor at Colby College. Still, the approach could strain relations with longtime allies.

“It’s the second time that he basically gives the middle finger to both Canada and Mexico,” Sarukhan said. “It’s not written in stone. There’s no rule. But it has been the case that since Reagan, U.S. presidents have usually gone to either Canada or Mexico, or, in some cases, the U.K.” 

The new stage

By contrast, Saudi Arabia offers Trump a glittering stage free of the political friction that might hang over visits to Ottawa, Mexico City or London, where the president’s tariff proposals and rhetoric have stirred unease.

Those tensions were clear in the president’s meeting with Carney, amid a trade war and Trump’s provocations over the threat of annexation. Carney later told reporters that he had asked Trump in the meeting to stop calling Canada the “51st state,” a reference to the president’s proposal of a “wonderful marriage” that would incorporate Canada into the U.S. 

“If you’re Mexico or Canada, you’ve got lots more to be snubbed about than a historic protocol nicety,” one foreign diplomat remarked.

In recent months, protests have flared in Canada over Trump’s policies, echoing widespread anti-Trump demonstrations in Mexico in 2017. Similarly, during Trump’s 2019 visit to the United Kingdom, tens of thousands of demonstrators had taken to the streets.

“Saudi Arabia and some of the other countries in the Middle East, they don’t have that same problem,” Chavez said, highlighting the Gulf’s warmer reception as an easier lift for Trump’s deal-making optics.

The author of a book on the president’s role as diplomat in chief, Chavez added that while “presidents like to use foreign travel to project the image of a statesman … traveling abroad can also provide a kind of refuge from domestic controversies.”

A well-connected Trump ally with business in the region said that the Gulf states, with vast wealth from sovereign funds, oil, and gas, are attractive to Trump and his interest in deal-making.

“They’re all economic power players,” the person said. “They are people who are transactional in terms of the economy, and want to get things done, and want to create jobs, and expand and invest.”

After Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman became the first foreign leader to hold a call with Trump this term, the president said he would ask the kingdom to increase its investment in the U.S. by upping a promised $600 billion to around $1 trillion.

Lately, senior U.S. administration officials have engaged with Gulf counterparts to explore economic and energy investments, as well as security cooperation. Treasury Secret Scott Bessent recently said that the administration’s first 100 days focused on “setting the table” for peace, trade and tax agreements, adding that “the next 100 days will be harvesting.” 

“They feel very comfortable that it’s going to be a complete recognition and acknowledgment of the unique relationship between the two countries, and especially between the president and the royal family,” another Trump ally with ties to Saudi Arabia said, noting “a spirit of optimism and goodwill” about the trip. Defense agreements and CEO engagements are also on the agenda, this person said, offering more promise of a deepening relationship across the board.

Meanwhile, Trump heightened anticipation for the trip, teasing a “very, very big announcement” before his departure, describing the outcome “as big as it gets” — while withholding specific details.

“I’m not necessarily saying it’s on trade,” Trump added, further stoking speculation.

Katulis said Trump’s recognition of the region’s role beyond energy was partially echoed by Biden’s policies, as geopolitical events and higher energy prices amid the war in Ukraine forced Biden’s hand after he had deprioritized the region upon entering office.

While Trump is expected to receive a lavish welcome in Riyadh, his Middle East pivot does have its own undercurrents of tension, as Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, privately grapple with his unpredictable tariff policies and governance, exemplified by the abrupt dismissal of Trump’s national security adviser last week. The president has also not named an ambassador to Saudi Arabia after dismissing the diplomat who had served in the role under his predecessor. 

“Beneath the surface, there are deep concerns about the direction Trump is taking America’s position in the global economy,” Katulis said, which threatens new risks and spillover into lower energy prices that could hit energy producers hardest. 

“It’s kind of ironic that many Gulf officials look with trepidation at the political risk and policy uncertainty coming from the United States,” Katulis added. “It used to be the other way around, and it still is in many ways: U.S. officials worried about what the big surprise is going to come from the region.”