Democrats and Republicans push to expand the Senate battleground map with long-shot races

A Mucarsel-Powell campaign spokesperson told NBC News that Scott “wrapped his arms” around the state’s abortion ban when it was signed into law, and that could be a liability for him among voters planning to vote to expand access.

And, in the wake of two hurricanes that left destruction in parts of the state, the same spokesperson said they plan to hit Scott, who was the state’s governor before he ran for Senate, on the property insurance crisis plaguing the state.

In TV ads, Scott has hit back. In one ad, he addresses voters directly to the camera, telling them that he and his daughter “both agree [in vitro fertilization] must be protected for our family, for every family.”

The ad counters an argument by national Democrats that Republicans who back abortion bans will also seek to restrict access to IVF treatments.

In another ad, he goes on the offensive, slamming Mucarsel-Powell as a “socialist” who wants “higher taxes on families.”

In Texas, Democrats have hammered Cruz on abortion and on a 2021 trip he took to Cancun while the state faced an energy crisis in the wake of a massive winter storm.

Republicans in the border state have responded by boosting Cruz’s credentials on border security, with one Cruz-sponsored ad featuring the Harris County district attorney, a Democrat, telling voters, “I’m supporting Ted Cruz because Democrats and Republicans must work together to solve Texans’ problems now.”

Cruz and other Republicans have also hit Allred on the issue of transgender women and girls competing in sports.

In one ad paid for by Cruz’s campaign, a narrator blasts Allred for “pushing an extreme liberal vision for America: boys in girls locker rooms, boys in girls bathrooms, boys in girls sports.”

Earlier this week, Allred responded, telling voters directly to camera in his own ad, “Let me be clear. I don’t want boys playing girls sports or any of this ridiculous stuff that Ted Cruz is saying.” 

Allred’s response to Cruz’s attacks “shows it was a good message” that resonated with voters, the national GOP operative said.

Despite efforts by Democrats to pour money and attention into these races, they still haven’t become the competitive nail-biters that the races are shaping up to be in Republican-leaning Montana and Ohio and swing states Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter still rates Florida’s Senate race as “Likely Republican,” though earlier this month the group moved Texas’ Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

The week before that, the group also shifted Nebraska’s Senate race slightly away from Republicans, from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” even though that state leans heavily in Trump’s favor at the top of the ticket.

That move came as independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn gained ground on GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in recent public and internal polls.

In Mland, the Senate race features a similar dynamic, with the race rated by Cook as “Likely Democrat,” even though Harris is expected to win there easily.

Hogan has mounted a formidable challenge against Prince rge’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race that she would be expected to easily win if she were facing any other Republican.

Although Alsobrooks leads in public polling, one source close to her campaign told NBC News that it’s “definitely a competitive race,” adding, “I don’t underestimate a former governor of eight years.”

And Hogan, though running as a Republican and working with the National Republican Senatorial Committee to run joint TV ads, has painted himself as an “independent, common sense leader” and a “maverick” who promises to be a “key swing vote that can stand up to the crazy on both sides, to the extremes of both parties.”

“We’ve run an aggressive race, as has Larry Hogan,” the source close to Alsobrooks added, but pointed to the county executive’s main argument against the former governor: that he would grant Republicans a Senate majority.

“As a person, I like Larry Hogan,” Alsobrooks said at a campaign event in September. “But that is not the question we are answering in this election. We are determining which side controls the Senate.”

In Nebraska, Osborn has tried to run the race as a true independent, rejecting endorsements from figures in either party. But Democrats have decided not to put a candidate up, tacitly clearing a lane for Osborn and giving him the opportunity to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and some Republicans.

“The polls in my race match up with what I’m seeing across Nebraska,” Osborn told NBC News in a statement, adding: “Our message of standing up for small businesses, family farmers, and working families is resonating because Nebraskans want a senator who listens to them, who shows up for them, and who will be a strong voice for them in the Senate.”

Republicans in the state have sought to paint Osborn as a Democrat in disguise, pointing to independent Sen. Bernie Sanders’ support of a 77-day strike Osborn organized while working as a mechanic at a Kellogg’s plant in the state in 2021.

Democrats have fought back, noting Osborn’s strike was supported by a bipartisan group of politicians, including then-GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts, who called on the company to negotiate with the striking workers in December of that year.

Ad spending there has remained relatively low, at least compared to other Senate races deemed competitive.

In September, Fischer and her supporters spent $1.8 million backing her and blasting Osborn, while the former union worker and his backers spent $2.7 million.

Republicans say the race will reset itself in Fischer’s favor ahead of Election Day, pointing to Trump’s strength in the state. The former president endorsed Fischer last month.

In a statement, Fischer’s campaign manager, Derek Oden, pointed to an internal campaign poll conducted earlier this month, which showed Fischer leading Osborn by 6 points, toward the edge of (but still within) the margin of error. (Fischer has won each of her two Senate terms by double digits.)

“We expect this positive trend to continue as time goes on and more Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborn isn’t an independent–he’s a liberal Democrat in disguise,” Oden said in a statement.