Odds, predictions, expert picks and favorites to win horse race

byadmin
May 3, 2025
Odds, predictions, expert picks and favorites to win horse race Odds, predictions, expert picks and favorites to win horse race

Saturday marks the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, the greatest two minutes in sports and one of the most bet-on events of the year. According to Churchill Downs, $210.7 million was wagered on the race last year, up from $188 million the previous year.

As we prepare for mint juleps and the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home,” let’s dive into the 2025 field and how to bet it. 

of the Kentucky Derby

First it’s important to know about the Kentucky Derby’s unpredictability. The favorite has won the race just under 35% of the time since 1908 (40 times) and not once in the last five years.

There are two classifications of bets in horse racing: straight and exotic. A straight bet involves a single horse. An exotic bet involves more than one horse.

The three most basic bets are all straight bets. They are betting a single horse to win, place or show. Choosing a horse to “win” is exactly what you think. You are betting on a specific horse to win the race. Betting on a horse to “place” means you are betting on said horse to finish first or second. A bet on a horse to “show” is wagering that the horse will finish first, second or third.

In the simplest of terms, exotic bets are parlays featuring multiple horses: 

Exacta: a bet on two horses to finish first and second in that order.

Quinella: a bet on two horses to finish first and second in any order.

Trifecta: a bet on three horses to finish first, second and third in that order.

Superfecta: a bet on four horses to finish first, second, third and fourth in that order.

Now that you know a few of the terms, let’s dive into the field.

Journalism is the favorite with odds of 7-2. It is followed by Sandman (5-1), American Promise (8-1) and Sovereignty (11-1).

Note: Both Rodriguez (No. 4) and Grande (No. 10) were scratched ahead of the race. The following is the updated post positions.

No. 1 Citizen Bull (17-1)

  • Jockey: Martin Garcia | Trainer: Bob Baffert
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
  • Fun Fact: This will be Garcia’s fifth Derby. His best finish was third in 2015 aboard Dortmund.

No. 2 Neoequos (60-1)

  • Jockey: Flavien Pratt | Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
  • Career Highlight: Finished third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes
  • Fun Fact: Bred in Florida, Neoequos is attempting to become the seventh horse bred in Florida to win the Kentucky Derby. The last was Silver Charm in 1997.

Follow the latest sports coverage from NBC News and NBC Sports. Stream the Kentucky Derby live on Peacock.

No. 3 Final Gambit (17-1)

  • Jockey: Luan Machado | Trainer: Brad H. Cox
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Jeff Ruby Steaks
  • Fun Fact: The Kentucky Derby will be Final Gambit’s first race on dirt.

No. 4 Rodriguez (9-1) SCRATCHED

  • Jockey: Michael E. Smith | Trainer: Bob Baffert
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Wood Memorial
  • Fun Fact: Both of Rodriguez’s victories have been wire to wire, and he figures to be at or near the front early in the Derby.

No. 5 American Promise (12-1)

  • Jockey: Nik Juarez | Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Virginia Derby
  • Fun Fact: The phrase “American Promise” is also associated with a handful of moments leading to the passage of the Voting Rights Act.

No. 6 Admire Daytona (40-1)

  • Jockey: Christophe Lemaire | Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
  • Career Highlight: Won the UAE Derby
  • Fun Fact: The UAE Derby was the fourth consecutive time a Japan-bred horse has won the race.

No. 7 Luxor Cafe (14-1)

  • Jockey: TBA | Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
  • Race Highlight: Won the 2025 Fukuryu Stakes
  • Fun Fact: Luxor Cafe won three stakes races in Japan to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Trainer and horse are making their first starts outside Japan.

No. 8 Journalism (4-1)

  • Jockey: Umberto Rispoli | Trainer: Mike McCarthy
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Santa Anita Derby
  • Fun Fact: Curlin (Journalism’s sire) has sired winners of the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic but not the Kentucky Derby.

No. 9 Burnham Square (22-1)

  • Jockey: Brian T. Hernandez Jr. | Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes
  • Fun Fact: Burnham Square’s grandfather is the 1990 Derby winner, Unbridled.

No. 10 Grande (17-1) SCRATCHED

  • Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
  • Career Highlight: Rallied from seventh for a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial to qualify for the Derby.
  • Fun Fact: Pletcher and Velazquez teamed up to win the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017.

No. 11 Flying Mohawk (39-1)

  • Jockey: Joseph D. Ramos | Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
  • Career Highlight: Second in the 2025 Jeff Ruby Steaks
  • Fun Fact: The Kentucky Derby will be Flying Mohawk’s first race on dirt.

No. 12 East Avenue (36-1)

  • Jockey: Luan Machado | Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
  • Career Highlight: Second in the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes
  • Fun Fact: Medaglia d’Oro, East Avenue’s sire, raced in all three Triple Crown races in 2002, finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, eighth in the Preakness and second in the Belmont.

No. 13 Publisher (33-1)

  • Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
  • Career Highlight: Finished second in the Arkansas Derby
  • Fun Fact: Asmussen is the winningest trainer of all time, having amassed over 10,000 victories as a trainer.

No. 14 Tiztastic (19-1)

  • Jockey: Joel Rosario | Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Louisiana Derby
  • Fun Fact: Asmussen’s father was a jockey, as are his two sons.

No. 15 Render Judgment (12-1)

  • Jockey: Julien Leparoux | Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
  • Career Highlight: Finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes
  • Fun Fact: The Kentucky Derby will be Leparoux’s first ride on Render Judgment.

No. 16 Coal Battle (31-1)

  • Jockey: Juan P. Vargas | Trainer: Lonnie Briley
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Rebel Stakes
  • Fun Fact: Coal Battle’s parents, Coal Front and Wolfblade, are descendants of Seattle Slew.

No. 17 Sandman (5-1)

  • Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz | Trainer: Mark Casse
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Arkansas Derby
  • Fun Fact: Tapit (Sandman’s sire) is the No. 1 active sire by lifetime Grade 1 winners and the all-time leading sire by earnings.

No. 18 Sovereignty (11-1)

  • Jockey: Manuel Franco | Trainer: William I. Mott
  • Career Highlight: Won the 2025 Fountain of Youth
  • Fun Fact: Mott was the trainer of Resilience, who finished sixth in the Derby last year.

No. 19 Chunk of Gold (37-1)

  • Jockey: Jareth Loveberry | Trainer: Ethan W. West
  • Career Highlight: Placed second at the 2025 Louisiana Derby
  • Fun Fact: This is Loveberry’s second Derby ride. He rode Two Phil’s to a second-place finish in 2023.

No. 20 Owen Almighty (44-1)

  • Jockey: TBA | Trainer: Brian Lynch
  • Career Highlight: Won the Tampa Bay Derby with the second-fastest time in its history.
  • Fun Fact: Irad Ortiz Jr. rode Owen Almighty at Tampa, but the ride is in question for the Derby.

No. 21 Baeza (12-1)

  • Jockey: Flavien Pratt  | Trainer: John A. Shirreffs
  • Career Highlight: Placed second in the Santa Anita Derby
  • Fun Fact: Baeza was purchased for $1.2 million at the 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Kentucky Derby predictions

NBC Sports’ Drew Dinsick likes “American Promise,” the youngest horse in the field, to win Saturday.

It is rare to have a strong opinion about a race that is as wide open and unpredictable as the Kentucky Derby. This is undoubtedly a very strong field with a completely worthy favorite in Journalism, but I’ve been taken by the physically impressive American Promise, the Justify colt trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

American Promise was a late foal and is just now maturing into the horse to beat for this race, in my opinion. His Virginia Derby romp was a sign of things to come, and I think he has an enormous run in him Saturday to hold off this competitive field. Expecting American Promise to be stalking a fast pace through the opening half-mile and be in ideal position to take the lead into the final turn and hoping his pedigree and recent development can help him hold on down the stretch. I’m hopeful that we get a price in the 15-1 range for this potential breakout superstar. — Dinsick

NBC Sports’ Al Bernstein expects Journalism to place but come up just short of a win.

Journalism is the morning line favorite, and he is probably the fastest horse in the race. His stalking style, however, could see him either getting caught up in the pace or having front-runners backing up in his face in the late going. In my top five, I have four closers and Journalism, and I see the favorite getting caught at the wire. 

Any one of those closers winning would not surprise me. That includes Publisher, who will be a big price and has never won a race. He might give Steve Asmussen his first Derby winner after having gone 0-for-26. Here’s how I see it finishing:

1st: Sandman

2nd: Journalism

3rd: Sovereignty

4th: Burnham Square

5th: Publisher — Bernstein

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Council on Problem Gambling for help at 1-800-522-4700, or go online at ncpgambling.org/chat.

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